Hot! Early Exit Polls Bound To Provide Surprises

ABC , NBC , CBS , Fox News , CNN plus the Associated Press have been leaked within the past, but is currently tightly held by a small number of individuals. They usually are sealed away from from the particular outside planet right up until eight p.m. PST.

Any depart polling that will happens before that point will be not any hesitation bogus however even volumes this arise right after 8-10 p.m. ought to often be treated with caution. History shows this beginning leave poll info bears, at best, exclusively a vague resemblance to the remaining outcome in each of the states.

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Yes, skilled pollsters will make use of the data and also actual returns for you to assist challenge which often reports will certainly head to every single candidates. The technique of "calling" the states has become a lot more cautious, because early picks from the 2000 presidential competition turned out being faulty.

That doesn't imply that amateurs whom acquire quick numbers will not likely extrapolate above reason.

Mark Z. Barabak , the expert Los Angeles Times political reporter, recounted Tuesday morning hours how this early exit poll ocean in preceding elections didn't effectively forecast that results. In 2004, pertaining to instance, insiders mastered which the first order of quit results gifted Sen. John Kerry a new 19% gain throughout Pennsylvania. He won this state, but only simply by 51% to 48%.

The studies showed Kerry up 4% in Ohio plus 4% around Florida too, even so the Democrat been for a while burning off the Buckeye State that will President George W. Bush 51% that will 48% in addition to shedding the actual Sunshine State 52% to be able to 47%.

Democrats who seem to thought the particular Ohio quantities idea early which selection day that Kerry are the upcoming president. They were specially disillusioned if your ballots arrived in, expressing Bush had toted the particular assert through about 180,000 votes.

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In 2000, a first wave with the consortium exit poll had Texas Gov. George Bush in place fractionally with Pennsylvania. He wound up burning off the particular express in order to Vice President Al Gore , 51% for you to 46%. More significantly, your customer survey revealed Gore leading Florida by means of 3%, although in which purported border did not materialize. Bush had 527 more votes should the counting stopped, presenting him your state and also the presidency.

Mark Blumental, Barack Obama 's margins by means of an average involving 4.7 percent points. This would not mean the many effects skewed pro-Obama; other depart poll projections put Sen. John McCain ahead of in which your dog complete in certain states.

james.rainey@latimes.com